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Political scientists of Far Eastern Federal University (FEFU) investigated new trends in international relations in the Asia-Pacific region. According to experts, the political situation in the Asia-Pacific region in the last decade has been determined by balancing the interests of the US and China, neutralizing American alliances by China, and hedging—maneuvering—by allies between the leading players. Scientists conclude that changes in the US policy and China's position in the Pacific create new opportunities for strengthening Russia's position in the Asia-Pacific region. The research has been published in World Economy and World Relations, the leading academic journal in the field of international politics.

The authors of the article—Artyom Lukin, Deputy Director, Oriental Institute–School of Regional and International Studies, and Semyon Korotich, Head of Office, Analytical Support of the FEFU International Activities—show how the United States has been pursuing a policy of 'rebalancing', i.e. selective deterrence of China, since 2012. Rebalancing also implies deepening alliances in which Washington's allies should play a more active role.

“The system of American bilateral alliances in the Asia Pacific region, called the San Francisco System or the 'Hub and Spokes' architecture, includes eight states: Japan, Australia, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, New Zealand, and Taiwan. But now this system is experiencing the most serious challenge since its formation in 1951, which is primarily due to the changing balance of power between the US and China. Now the 'Hub and Spokes' system is gradually being transformed into a network, directed and controlled from Washington,” Artyom Lukin pointed out.

The approaches chosen by the scientists make it possible to widely present the current state of international relations in East Asia. The authors analyze the position of Thailand, South Korea, Singapore, the Philippines, and Taiwan in relation to China and the United States. The researchers conclude that under the new conditions, Asia Pacific countries resort to a hedging strategy, i.e. maneuvering between the interests of big powers.

“Hedging is mostly inherent in Washington's allies and partners in Southeast Asia. Singapore has achieved the greatest perfection in the implementation of this strategy. As the high-ranking Singaporean diplomat put it, ‘The US is important and China is important. We are able to work with them simultaneously.’ In an effort to maintain and strengthen close ties with the United States, the Singapore leadership emphasizes the need to take greater account of China's strategic interests at the same time,” said Semyon Korotich.

The authors of the article note that the strengthening of China in the Asia-Pacific region is facilitated not only by economic power, but also by its soft policy, as well as by the cultural and historical characteristics of Asian societies.

“For a number of East Asian countries, not only geopolitical risks, potentially arising from the neighboring great power, but also political and ideological threats that are dangerous for the ruling regimes and the cultural and civilizational identity of these states are of importance. The later type of threat does not come from China, but from the United States, which exports liberal democracy. Many in these states view China as a counterweight to American interventionism and global hegemony,” the authors said.

The scientists believe that expert assessments of international relations in the Asia-Pacific region are of strategic importance for Russia. This work was carried out within the framework of the state program of the Russian Ministry of Education and Science on the topic 'Formation of a new international order in the Asia-Pacific region and the national interests of Russia'. The full text of the research can be found on the link (in Russian).

“The growing rivalry between the United States and China potentially opens up a number of opportunities for Russian diplomacy. If American alliances begin to weaken, and the system becomes less dependent on the United States, it would allow us to cooperate more deeply with the Asia-Pacific countries and form a multipolar world. Not all states like to make a choice between the United States and China. Therefore, it is important for us to monitor the situation and understand where and when we can participate and offer an alternative,” said Semyon Korotich.

FEFU Oriental Institute–School of Regional and International Studies is one of the leading Russian expert centers for studying the challenges of the Asia-Pacific region. In 2017, political scientists and international relations experts published a monograph ‘Russia in the Pacific Rim: role, interests and priorities for ensuring regional security and accelerated economic development’ and the first international textbook ‘Introduction to Border Studies’, which has already been acknowledged by major international universities.