Development of economic-mathematical tools for analyzing and evaluating the impact of government programs on socio-economic development indicators of territories

Department Name: Research and Educational Laboratory of Data Analysis and Applied Econometric Research, School of Economics and Management (SEM), Far Eastern Federal University (FEFU)

Head of the Department 

   Name: Artur Rubikovich Nagapetyan, Ph.D. in Economics, Head of the Research and Educational Laboratory of Data Analysis and Applied Econometric Research, SEM FEFU

Field of Science and Research Directions

According to the International Science Map of the Olympiad: Economics and Econometrics

Information about the Research and Educational Project (REP)

Project Title

Development of economic-mathematical tools for analyzing and evaluating the impact of government programs on socio-economic development indicators of territories.

Project Leader 

Name: Artur Rubikovich Nagapetyan, Ph.D. in Economics, Head of the Research and Educational Laboratory of Data Analysis and Applied Econometric Research, SEM FEFU

ResearchGate

Field of Science and Research Directions 

According to the International Science Map of the Olympiad: Economics and Econometrics

Working Languages

Russian and English

Project Goal

To develop economic-mathematical tools for analyzing and evaluating the impact of government programs on socio-economic development indicators of territories.

Project Tasks

1. Design of the research project.

2. Literature review preparation.

3. Description of existing models and approaches for evaluating program impacts and their limitations.

4. Development of original economic-mathematical tools for analyzing and evaluating the impact of government programs, distinguished by simplified requirements for forming control groups (e.g., autonomous formation capability).

5. Testing the original tools on real-world case studies from APEC and BRICS countries.

6. Development of a digital service for regional authorities in APEC and BRICS countries to assess the impact of relevant government programs.

Scientific Approaches and Methods

1. Quasi-experimental methods of applied microeconometrics (e.g., Difference in Difference, Synthetic Control, Synthetic Difference in Difference).

2. Approaches to enhance the autonomy of these methods, including machine learning techniques.

3. Development in Shiny (R, Python).

Information about the Project Leader 

Scientific Interests

Development of economic-mathematical tools for analyzing causal relationships between economic indicators and evaluating the effectiveness of program impacts.

Applied Methods

- Microeconometric quasi-experimental methods (instrumental variable method, difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity design, synthetic control, etc.).

- Spatial econometrics (spatial autoregressive modeling, including SAR, SEM, SDM, SAC models).

- Financial econometrics (ARIMA, GARCH, DCC, DPI, ML, NL).

Research and Educational Activities:

Themes of Research Projects (Ongoing and Completed)

- Development of economic-mathematical tools for analyzing and evaluating the impact of medical workforce availability on population mortality rates (case study: cardiovascular diseases) (Ph.D. dissertation, 2022–2024).

- Development of economic-mathematical tools for analyzing and evaluating the value of a statistical life based on willingness to pay for risk reduction (case study: air pollution) (Ph.D. dissertation, 2022–2024). 
- Modeling the volatility of stock returns and market indices (Ph.D. dissertation, 2014–2020). 

- Spatial autoregressive analysis of disease incidence rates across Russian regions (Grant, Project Leader, 2022–2024). 

- Study of patterns in forming optimal tenant structures for shopping centers in the Moscow region (R&D, Project Leader, 2024–2025). 

- Sustainable regional development: effective economic mechanisms for market organization and entrepreneurial competencies under uncertainty (balance of safety and risk) (State Assignment, Contributor, 2023–2025). 

- Study of innovation management patterns in Russia's restaurant industry (R&D, Contributor, 2024). 
Publications 

H-Index:

- 7 (elibrary.ru) [details]

- 6 (Google Scholar)([details]

Selected Publications:

1. Nagapetyan, A., Pavlova, T., Li, J. (2024). The diversity of income effects on mortality. Modelling of total mortality rate in regions with different levels of socio-economic development in People's Republic of China provinces using the instrumental variable method. *Russian Journal of Economics, 10*(4). (Scopus Q2) 

2. Nagapetyan, A., Subbotovsky, D., Pavlova, T., Li, J. (2024). How does the incidence rate affect real income across Russian regions? *Terra Economicus, 22*(2), 77–95. (Scopus Q2, WoS Q3) 

3. Drozd, A., Nagapetyan, A. (2024). Modelling the variation of the impact of medical personnel availability on mortality rates: cardiovascular disease case. *Journal of Applied Economic Research, 4*. (RSCI) 

4. Nagapetyan, A., Drozd, A., Subbotovsky, D. (2023). How to Determine the Optimal Number of Cardiologists in a Region? *Mathematics, 11*, 4422. (Scopus Q1, WoS Q1) 

5. Otrachshenko, V., Tyurina, E., Nagapetyan, A. (2022). The Economic Value of the Glass Beach: Contingent Valuation and Life Satisfaction Approaches. *Ecological Economics, 198*. (Scopus Q1, WoS Q1) 
Intellectual Property 

- Scientific works (Key results are listed in the publications above). 

- Database: Socio-economic indicators of Russian regions, characterizing their internal and external environment factors. State-registered copyright certificate (No. RU 2024622373). 

- Marketplace for developers and users of data-based services: ["Digital East"], featuring prototypes of developed services. 

 Postdoc Vacancy Description 

Position and Contract Duration 

- Position: Research Associate 

- Contract Duration: 2 years 

Tasks and Functions in the REP 

- Development of original economic-mathematical tools for analyzing and evaluating the impact of government programs, distinguished by simplified requirements for forming control groups. 

- Development of a digital service for regional authorities in APEC and BRICS countries to assess the impact of relevant government programs. 

Requirements 

- Higher professional education. 

- Proficiency in English (Upper-Intermediate or higher). 

- Knowledge of Russian (optional). 

- Basic understanding of econometric modeling approaches (courses: econometrics, applied microeconometrics). 

- Basic skills in R/STATA/Python (preferably R). 

Expected Results 

- Publication of at least 5 scientific articles (including high-ranking Russian journals). 

- Participation in conferences, seminars, and symposia. 

Salary 

- Starting from 120,000 RUB per month. 

Additional Support 

- Discussed based on competition results.